TLDR:
Bitcoin price predictions suggest potential rise to $122,000 by February 2025, based on analysis from 10x Research showing consistent $16,000-$18,000 price increments
Current trading around $105,727 with resistance at $101,000, following recent ETF approvals and increased institutional interest
Market expects sideways movement between $100,000-$110,000 until the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28-29
US national debt has reached $36.21 trillion, exceeding the $36.1 trillion limit, potentially leading to new quantitative easing measures
Bitcoin capital inflows have decreased since reaching $100,000, with realized profit-taking down 93% from December 2024 peak
Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate between $100,000 and $110,000 as investors await the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for January 28-29. The cryptocurrency has shown steady momentum since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, with recent trading activity centered around $105,727.
Research firm 10x Research has projected that Bitcoin could reach $122,000 by February. Their analysis is based on observed patterns showing consistent price increases of $16,000 to $18,000 since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
Bitcoin
BTC Price
Markus Thielen of 10x Research identifies the current market position as a “low-risk, high-reward entry opportunity.” Following Donald Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin tested the $101,000 resistance level, prompting analysts to suggest favorable buying conditions with stop-losses positioned near $98,000.
The cryptocurrency’s recent price movements have demonstrated a pattern of steady increases followed by consolidation periods. This behavior has become characteristic of Bitcoin’s market dynamics in recent months, as institutional investors continue to enter the market.
Trading data reveals that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional financial markets has decreased, partly due to the growing presence of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency space. This shift in market dynamics has contributed to Bitcoin’s ability to maintain stability above the $100,000 mark.
Current market sentiment indicators show a bullish trend, with the Fear & Greed Index registering 84, indicating “Extreme Greed.” Technical analysis from CoinCodex suggests a potential 24% increase to $130,000 by February 21, 2025.
However, recent data from Glassnode indicates a slowdown in capital inflows since Bitcoin reached $100,000. The realized cap net position change has decreased from 12.5% to under 5% since November 2024, suggesting reduced trading activity at higher price levels.
Profit-taking has also seen a marked decline, dropping 93% from its December 2024 peak of $4.5 billion to current levels of $316.7 million. This reduction in sell-side pressure indicates a potential equilibrium forming between supply and demand.
FOMC Meeting
Market attention has now turned to the upcoming FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows a 99.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%.
The US national debt situation has added another layer of complexity to market expectations. With the debt reaching $36.21 trillion, exceeding the $36.1 trillion ceiling, speculation has increased about potential quantitative easing measures.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has declined since April 2022, dropping from nearly $9 trillion to $6.8 trillion as of January 15, due to quantitative tightening policies. Any signals about future quantitative easing during the FOMC meeting could influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Weekly technical analysis suggests optimistic possibilities, with some analysts projecting the total cryptocurrency market capitalization could double within six to eight weeks. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows patterns similar to those observed in March 2017 and September 2020, periods that preceded strong market performance.
Despite the current consolidation phase, Bitcoin continues to maintain price levels that would have seemed improbable just months ago. The market appears to be establishing new support levels above $100,000 as it adapts to increased institutional participation and evolving monetary policy landscapes.
Trading volumes and market indicators suggest a period of price discovery as Bitcoin explores previously uncharted territory above $100,000. The market continues to process the effects of recent ETF approvals and institutional adoption.
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